The Hype Cycle

Emerging technologies and trends sometimes follow a pattern such as the image below, first called the Hype Cycle by Gartner. There’s an initial peak of excitement and an explosion of market activity, followed by the rapid fall into the “Trough of Disillusionment.” Beyond that spike is a more sustainable, steady growth. This pattern is observed in many phenomena, not just in technology. For example, look at the price of Bitcoin

There are a number of technologies going through the hype right now, and I’m enjoying the enthusiasm. But the challenge is to be practical as well. I believe we are reaching the top for AI and we may already be sliding down the bottom for BigData – there’s going to be some pain and failure before these technologies reach the true growth curves that everyone is projecting. Now is the time to learn as much as possible, prepare your teams and workforce for the future, and start many projects, some which fail and all of which help you learn. There is massive opportunity for the people and the firms who are ready when the hype pops and the value climb begins.

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